What's Next for RIM?

Several people have asked for my thoughts on RIM's financial troubles.  A computing platform runs on momentum.  When the platform's growing, there's a virtuous circle between the growth of the customer base, the introduction of new products, and the arrival of new developers.  Each one reinforces the others, and it produces strong, resilient growth.  Look at Apple's current expansion for a great example.

But if that momentum breaks, the same forces that help you grow can create a self-reinforcing decline.  The loss of customers reduces your resources, so you can't spend as much on new products, so developers are less excited, so you lose more customers, and so on.  I lived through those cycles at both Apple and Palm, and they are very difficult to reverse once they gather momentum.

Based on RIM's latest financial report, it looks to me like the company may have fallen into a declining pattern in North America.  Sales in the rest of the world seem to be doing better, which is masking the severity of the problem in the US.  It's hard to say any of this for sure, because RIM doesn't release all that much detail.  But here's what I think I am seeing in the numbers:

--As the chart below shows, sales were down compared to last quarter, only the second sequential revenue drop since fiscal 2006. 


Revenue per quarter (RIM fiscal quarters)

RIM pointed out that sales were up year over year.  They were, but...


--The year over year revenue increase was driven by a 67% increase in sales outside North America.  If you look only at North America, sales were down about 18% year over year.  (RIM didn't announce that number, but you can back it out from the reported increase in international sales compared to total sales). 

In other words, RIM is growing strongly outside North America, but declining sharply in North America.

The most disturbing thing about the revenue decline is that it came in the quarter when RIM shipped the PlayBook.  That should have increased revenue.  The fact that North American revenue dropped anyway means the decline in North American BlackBerry smartphone sales was even worse than it seems.  Edit: I did a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the revenue from PlayBook, and BlackBerry smartphone sales in North America must be down by well over 20% year over year. 


--Device gross margins are down to 28%, a drop of three points from the quarter before.  I suspect this is another sign of the mix shift away from North America -- RIM's sales in the rest of the world tend to be lower-cost units sold to young people, and those devices would have lower margins.  It may also mean that RIM has been cutting prices in an unsuccessful effort to prop up sales in North America.


Company and hardware gross margins (RIM fiscal quarters)

As you can see from the chart, RIM's overall corporate margins (the blue line) did not drop as much as its hardware margins.  That's because the company had a big increase in services revenue.  Perhaps the service revenue from those international customers is better than the device revenue.  Unfortunately, RIM doesn't release enough data to let me dig into that.


--Average sales revenue per device dropped $20, to $279.  That is an all-time low.  This may be due to the shift to international sales.  It may also be due to price-cutting in North America.  I am astounded that average revenue per unit sold dropped in the quarter when the (relatively expensive) PlayBook shipped.


Average revenue per device sold (RIM fiscal quarters)


--The shoe that hasn't dropped yet is channel inventory.  RIM told us it had shipped 500,000 PlayBooks, but it didn't say how many of them have sold through to customers.  It's easy to have one good quarter when you load the channel, but what matters is the sales in the next two quarters.

We also do not know how many BlackBerry units are sitting around in the channel.  But one thing is certain, every time RIM's executives talk about how great their upcoming products will be, it gets a little bit harder to sell through those existing devices.

Netting it out, the sales pattern in North America looks disturbing.  Pricing actions in North America don't appear to be increasing sales, and the PlayBook has not rescued the company.  The silver lining for RIM is that its international sales are growing.  But North America is half of RIM's revenue, so it has to be fixed if the company is to go back to rapid growth.


What happens next?

To restore momentum in a faltering platform, you need a hit product.  Can RIM generate one?  The company says it will accelerate the introduction of new products, which sounds sensible in the abstract, but if it's possible to develop products faster, why didn't RIM do it before?  And considering RIM's history of shipping buggy devices, I tremble at what its products might look like if they were developed even faster.

RIM says it is going to do layoffs, which is probably necessary given the drop in revenue.  But I wonder where the cuts will come from, and how big they will be.  Do you lower staffing in North America, so you can focus more on the fast-growing international markets?  If so, you may blow your chances of ever recovering the North American half of your business.  Do you cut R&D?  If so, I don't know how you get products to market faster.  Do you focus on being a youth messaging phone?  If so, how do you prevent Apple's new iMessage service from eating your lunch?  Or do you try to do an across-the-board haircut of a certain percent of employees in every department?  I went through some of those at Apple.  They are easy for management to implement, but their net impact is fewer people trying to do the same work, and doing it poorly.

Meanwhile, there will be a morale problem at RIM.  Ideally, you should announce layoffs on the same day you conduct them, so employees don't waste time worrying about whether they will keep their jobs.  Instead RIM pre-announced the layoffs, which probably mollified investors but which will distract every person in the company for the next quarter while they prep their resumes.  I have lived through that sort of uncertainty, and it is a productivity-killer.

The other hit to morale is going to be RIM's announcement that it will buy back up to 5% of its shares.  At current market value, that is about $900 million in cash that could have gone into R&D or marketing or price cuts but will instead be used to prop up the stock price.  If you're a RIM employee, the combination of layoffs plus stock buyback seems to say that management thinks the stock price is more important than the work you're doing.

What is the plan?  You can't cut your way to broad growth; you have to cut and then focus on some key initiatives.  Apple is a good example to keep in mind.  It was in far, far worse shape than RIM, and came back very successfully.  RIM can too.  But Apple slaughtered huge numbers of projects and teams so it could focus on brand advertising, the iMac, and eventually the iPod.  

So I'm waiting for RIM to tell me what its master plan is for restoring growth.  So far all management has said is that the layoffs will be a "streamlining exercise" rather than a reorganization (link).  That may imply an unwillingness to make hard choices, or it may just mean they are not yet willing to discuss their plans.  Either way, before we can evaluate RIM's prospects, I think we need to know more about what it's going to kill (if anything), and which initiatives it will focus on obsessively.

WHY WEINER SHOULD NOT RESIGN---HIGH TIME TO DECRIMINALIZE THE MALE SEXUAL LIBIDO.

1. We need him. He is the best congressional spokesman for the sensible single payer health care system. He has the cajones (pun intended) to stand up to the greedy health care moguls who are bankrupting the nation and call for a sensible comprehensive system--like Australia and other civlized countries.

2. He has injured no one (except possibly his wife) and has broken no laws. (a frank conversation with an intelligent --open-minded partner--would likely clear the matter up quickly)

3. What he's done is not perverted or wierd. He is seeking sexual gratification electronically---a new and wonderfully diverse addition to the sensual spectrum.

4. This is a seminal moment for America to move beyond its hipocritical naivete about male sexual wiring. Consider this fragment from one of my longer poems entitled WHAT EVERY MARTIAN NEEDS TO KNOW:

Men---like mighty studs and stallions
Have an inborn driving need
to charm a lot of maidens
and scatter lots of seeds.

But these ladies here from Venus
have a different agenda.
They only want a single mate
and a cozy hacienda.

So love and sex are apples and oranges
to us Martian males,
but women won't have them separately;
they insist on fruit coctail.

Nature has thrown us a cross-purpose curve;
the solution's still in doubt.
Couple's must find a way to work
this contradiction out.

5. And Modern--intelligent couples are doing just that: finding a way to work the contradiction out. Hillary Clinton is seemingly at peace with Bill's nature. It is not unthinkable that Mrs Weiner could come to terms with Anthony's little hobby.

6. A really bright female that I consulted this afternoon offered this insight: We don't really know the true nature of unfettered, unscripted female sexuality. Once freed of irrational social custom, the two sexes may find that their sex drives are ballpark-compatable.
She added: Custom constriction causes unmet needs---which cause apetite distortions---like promiscuity, perversion and prudishness.

7. Weiner's photos and e-mails are not out of the ballpark. I suspect that none of the people nagging him to resign could withstand sudden exposure of their predilections. Really wonderful people have had sexual tastes contrary to the conventional norm----Benjamin Franklin---Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy, Leonardo Da Vinci and a thousand others you admire.

8. What we need is to stop damaging our childrens natural impulses by unreasonable social
custom and shame. Unmet needs and raging frustration have headline-making consequences.

9. Early polling suggest that the majority of his constituents do not want him to resign. I'm hoping he rides this out---like Barney Frank did and even David Vitter from Louisiana.

10. I dare any woman in America to learn how the reindeer herds in Lapland were made tame (hint: they consistently killed off the feisty ones)----and to ask themselves if they really want tame leadership. Smart women will work with us to remove the shame---diminish the need to lie and preserve the glory of feisty "REINDEER".

Thanks for listening---wanted to get this off my chest.

WHAT IT COST ME TO LIVE LAST MONTH

Three readers of my last post have asked that I detail my living expenses for a month----because 4 to 600 dollars a month seems ridiculously cheap. So --OK--here goes---as best I can calculate.
Satellite TV programming----------------------27.00
Satellite radio-------------------------------13.00
Cell Phone-----------------------------------25.00
Propane--------------------------------------30.00
Park camping pass (amortized)----------17.00
gas-------------------------------------------120.00
Food----------------------------------------200.00
Insurance-----------------------------------30.00

total----------------------------------------462.00

I'm fortunate that I don't have to live this frugally---It's just that I can---while enjoying most of the amenities of modern life. I'm also fortunate not to have medical cost: (VA)

The lesson I hope these numbers impart is that it is now possible for millions to live the fantasy life. That millions are needlessly working-----they have enough money now---and don't realize it.
I also hope these numbers prove that it is the cost of HOUSING that is impoverishing America.
(here's my rant on that subject written years ago

http://mobilecodgers.blogspot.com/2008/02/housemania.html

RANDY PHILOSOPHIZES: Across America, I see BUTTERFLY SOULS-- fully morphed, wings spread, capable of flight----feeling the call of open skies----YET STUCK---in houses, jobs, conventionality, fear, dead relationships, old habits, crazy religion! I say to you all: "Come--travel with me---however sweet these laid up stores, however convenient this dwelling---We cannot remain here. However calm these waters, however secure this harbor---we must not anchor here. Together, the inducements shall seem greater---We shall sail wild and pathless seas---We will go where the winds blow, waves dash---and the Yankee Clipper speeds by under full sail.
Forward---after the great companions---and to belong to them---they too are ON THE ROAD. Onward---to that which is endless---as it was beginningless. To undergo much--tramps of days and rests of nights. To see nothing anywhere, but what you can reach it--and pass it. To look up or down no road--but it stretches and waits for you. To know the universe itself as a road---as many roads---as roads for TRAVELING SOULS." (Walt Whitman)

LIVE THE FUTURE NOW----IN NEW MEXICO

I'M DOING IT----AND MAYBE YOU CAN TOO!!
When citizens come to their senses---literally---we will begin to live like this:
1. The burden of food, clothing, shelter will be reduced to insignificance.
2. We will have all the free time we want;
3. All the adventure we can generate;
4. All the companionship we can attract;
5. Enjoy the weather we prefer almost all the time;
6. Live ridiculously cheap;
7. Move to new and interesting places whenever we choose;
8. Enjoy the full range of electronic connectedness;
9. Powering our lifestyle with the sun;
10. Free from most of the tedious distractions to discovering WHO WE REALLY ARE--WHAT WE WANT AND WHAT WE WISH TO SHARE WITH OTHERS.

Thousands already enjoy such a lifestyle and you probably can too. Here's how:
a. Arrange for an income stream of at least $600 a month. (some do it on $400)
b. Buy or build some kind of mobile domicile. (At a minimum, your car and a tent will suffice. A trailer or motor home is super luxurious)
c. Purchase a New Mexico parks pass ($225 per year) and enjoy any or all of 31 lovely campgrounds---scattered statewide---with amenities such as hot showers etc. (google New Mexico State Parks pass for details)

I found some of those thousands here at my first stop---City of Rocks State Park between Deming and Silver City.

Settling in among the stonehenge-like rocks for 10 days.

Trails everywhere---

And then one day I had a visitor:

Meet Glenn---Musician, Philosopher, Adventurer and fellow blogger. This is one terrific guy--If ever I were to envy anyone--it would be him. Check out his blog:

http://www.tosimplify.net/

And then a phlock of Philosopher/Adventurer friends joined me for several hours of wonderful conversation. I believe everyone really wants to engage in- depth on meaningful subjects. Most have simply never tried. What we talk about is WHAT IS THE GOOD LIFE and how to achieve it.

And when they left -- Lucas came to visit me. My cup runneth over!

Then---moving on to Caballo state Park---settling alongside Caballo lake.

Then to this strange place----White Sands National Monument. That's pure white gypsum you're seeing--not conventional sand. Lucas came along---loved playing in the sand.

RANDY PHILOSOPHIZES: New Mexico is leading the way for other states with its park pass system and in so doing is facilitating a new lifestyle. Slowly, slowly, it is dawning on folks that what they really want is sufficiency, freedom, simplicity and society----and all that---can be had for a pittance.

Slowly, slowly people are understanding that a house is a trap----a life squeezing, immobilizing trap that cost too much time and money. At our core, we are spiritual beings and nothing material CAN satisfy us. The "good stuff" and the good life are intangibles: a free and inquiring mind, the affection of others, learning, sharing, experiencing.

Myself and my fellow travelers are living proof that you need not live immobilized, in debt or in drudgery.

"Come---travel with us--together the inducements shall seem greater" (Whitman)

Windows 8: The Beginning of the End of Windows

I have a longstanding rule for evaluating new tech products: Don't judge anything by the demo.  I've seen far too many product previews that hid fundamental flaws in usability.  Until you can touch and play with the product on your own, seeing the little details of fit and performance that make it delightful or frustrating, you won't really know if it's worth your time.

So it's far too early to make any judgments on Windows 8, which Microsoft just previewed (link).  There are an incredible number of ways it could go wrong.

But.  I've got to say, this is the first time in years that I've been deeply intrigued by something Microsoft announced.  Not just because it looks cool (it does), but because I think it shows clever business strategy on Microsoft's part.  And I can't even remember the last time I used the phrase "clever business strategy" and Microsoft in the same sentence.

The announcement also has immense implications for the rest of the industry.  Whether or not Windows 8 is a financial success for Microsoft, we've now crossed a critical threshold. The old Windows of mice and icons is officially obsolete. That resets the playing field for everybody in computing.


The slow death of Windows

When Netscape first made the web important in personal computing, Microsoft responded by rapidly evolving Internet Explorer.  That response was broadly viewed as successful, but in retrospect maybe it was too successful for Microsoft's good.  It let the company go back to harvesting money from its Windows + Office monopoly, feeling pretty secure from potential challengers.

Meanwhile, the focus of application innovation slipped away from Windows, toward web apps.  New software was developed first on the Internet, rather than on Windows.  Over time, Windows became more and more a legacy thing we kept because we needed backward compatibility, rather than a part of the next generation of computing.

Windows was our past, the web was our future.

This process was made very starkly clear by the iPad.  Although the iPad is not a comprehensive PC replacement, and Apple has been very careful to say that, it is a very good PC replacement for certain tasks.  And it has probably started to eat a hole in sales of notebook PCs, a very ominous change that should scare the daylights out of the people in Redmond.

To me, Windows 8 is the first sensible response by Microsoft to the strategic challenge it faces from the web.  It apparently introduces not just a new user interface, but also a new programming model that embraces web technologies and integrates them with Windows resources and APIs.

I need to see a lot more on that programming model: How will Windows web apps really work, which APIs are available, how will these apps be sold and discovered, and on and on.  Ars Technica had a great question: What's the visual paradigm for apps that want to look modern but aren't appropriate for touch? (link):

"There are plenty of applications that are too complex and fiddly to ever be at home with a touch-first interface—consider a software development environment, or a fully-featured office suite. Leaving these stuck in a Windows 7 ghetto doesn't seem like a good long-term option."

But at least Microsoft is finally trying.  The alternative was to cling to the past and be a stationary target, gradually eaten away by the iPad and Android and Chrome and smartphones and whatever else the web world cooked up.


The risk

There's a downside in all of this for Microsoft.  By embracing the next generation of computing, Microsoft is obsoleting its current products. 

You can see this effect just by watching the Windows 8 preview video (link).  The new interface and its applications look fluid and roomy and relaxing to use.  The interface is smooth and playful.  And then they switch into Windows compatibility mode and there's an explosion of crapola on the screen.  It almost made me gag.

John Gruber says this is a fundamental flaw in Microsoft's approach (link), as does Jason Snell at Macworld (link).  I understand what they're saying -- when you're working on a new paradigm, you don't want to be distracted by any baggage from the old one.  But for Microsoft, this is about more than just responding to the iPad.  It's the company's next computing paradigm, a change as fundamental as the transition from DOS to Windows.  The thing that made the Windows transition work was that Microsoft protected the customers' investment in old applications and data.  You could keep using your old DOS applications while you gradually got used to Windows. 

So users will have an interesting choice.  Apple, with iOS, is making a clean break with the past.  So are Chrome and Web OS.  Microsoft is trying to cherry-pick the best of iOS and WebOS and Chrome, and wrap that into a product that's also backward-compatible.  Let's see, cleaner design versus backward compatible...where have I seen that before?  Oh yeah, Mac vs. Windows, 1990.  I was at Apple at the time, and backward compatibility was the magic key that kept the PC installed base loyal.  I'm sure Microsoft knows that, and they're looking to run the same play again.  Since they are not likely to create something even slicker than Apple, I think they're absolutely right to maintain compatibility in their new product. It's really their only choice.

Old Windows apps running inside Windows 8 do look awful.  But so did DOS inside Windows 3.0, and that didn't stop people from buying it.

Microsoft will pay a serious price for the Windows 8 announcement.  Most PC users haven't yet upgraded to Windows 7, and some Microsoft execs have been bragging in public about the revenue to come from upgrading all of those people.  Forget about it.  I think you'd be an idiot to buy Windows 7 for an existing PC when you know Windows 8 is coming.  It would be like buying a horse-drawn carriage after Ford announced the Model T.

So there is a risk (actually, a likelihood) that Microsoft will stall its own revenue this year.  I'm surprised that it is previewing Windows 8 so early, when it won't even have more details until its developer conference in September.  And who knows when the new OS will actually ship; ArsTechnica guesses it'll be the second half of 2012, which usually means December.  That means we're in for up to 18 months of vaporware.  If I had to pick a fundamental flaw in Microsoft's approach, I'd point to that 18 month delay.  It's way too long.  It should have been nine months maximum.

Hey Microsoft, does no one there remember Osborne Computer (link)? You can destroy a tech company by pre-announcing your next generation product before it ships.  Luckily for Microsoft, most PC companies don't have an immediate alternative to Windows, so it won't collapse the way Osborne did.  I assume the folks at Microsoft were spooked by the competition and decided they needed to preannounce Windows 8 now to prevent Google Chrome from gaining momentum, or iOS from taking over, or some other alternative like Web OS emerging, now that HP is talking about licensing it (link).  But the long delay raises the risks to WIndows.  Microsoft has now bet its future on Windows 8.  If it's late, or if it's not a great experience, that could turn into a very serious financial issue for the company, and it could invite customers to switch to something else.  A few years from now we could look back at this as Microsoft's death rattle. 

Or as its new beginning.


What it means to the rest of us

The history of platform transitions is that they are huge opportunities for developers.  They reset the playing field for apps and devices.  Look at the history:  The leaders in DOS applications (Lotus, Word Perfect, etc) were second rate in GUI software.  The leaders in GUI apps (Adobe, Microsoft, etc) were not dominant in the web.  It's actually very rare for a software company that was successful in the old paradigm to transfer that success to the new one.  Similar turnover has happened in hardware transitions (for example, Compaq rode the Intel 386 chip to prominence over IBM in PCs).  And yes, there is a hardware transition as part of Windows 8, since it will now support ARM chips, and you'll want a touchscreen to really take advantage of it.

So if you're running an existing PC hardware or software company, ask yourself how a new competitor could use the platform transition to challenge your current products.  Here's a sobering thought to keep you awake tonight: the odds are that the challengers will win.  The company most at risk from this change is the largest vendor of Windows apps, Microsoft itself.  Microsoft Office must be completely rethought for the new paradigm.  You have about 18 months, guys.  Good luck.

By the way, web companies are also at risk.  Your web apps are designed for a browser-centric, mouse-driven user experience.  What happens to your app when the browser melts into the OS, and the UI is driven by touch?  If you think this change doesn't affect you, I have an old copy of WordStar that you can play with.  Google and Facebook, I am talking to you.

If you're running a hardware company, how will you need to change your devices to take advantage of the new OS?  Shipping a device that isn't Windows 8 ready will soon be as risky as shipping a PC in 1993 that couldn't connect a mouse.  (Unfortunately, because Windows 8 is so far out, I don't know if Microsoft has even fully defined the hardware spec for a Windows 8 PC.  The OS cries out for a flat panel screen that docks, so you can use it on your lap or as a monitor. Microsoft has a lot of work to do, and the PC vendors will face a lot of uncertainty.)

If you're starting up a software or hardware company, you should ask yourself what new opportunities will be created for you by Windows 8.  What category of app or website will be made obsolete by this new operating environment, and can you seize it?  (For starters, who's going to take down Office?)

And if you're making a competing platform, this is your opportunity to strike.  Microsoft has given you more than a year's advance warning.  The race is on to replace Windows.  Can you create a better alternative?  How will you protect the legacy apps and data of PC users?  If you're looking to license, can you line up enough vendors, and a reference hardware design, to get to critical mass before Microsoft does?

I have no idea how this will all turn out, but finally after 20-plus years of GUI dominance on the desktop, fundamental change is at hand and the dice are rolling again.

This will be fun.

THE JOYFUL ALTERNATIVE TO (CONVENTIONAL) RELIGION

Conventional religion teaches: That there is a God--who loves us---sends prophets--inspires authoritative books or men--sometimes inspires us directly---establishes churches--has incarnated (became flesh)---expects obedience/adoration--will send us to hell if we don't believe.

Here's how I see the situation and what I recommend: We all wake up in the middle of a mystery---not really knowing any ultimate answers about ORIGIN or DESTINY. ( How the universe began and what is our place in it.)

Adults feed us their "take" on these two questions and most of us "buy into" their story. (or occasionally some other prevalent story.) And we then live our lives more or less within that version of reality.

I SAY IT IS A DISHONORABLE WASTE OF LIFE TO LIVE IT IN SERVICE TO ANY LOCAL MYTH. ( as inappropriate as grown-up birds still feeding on the regurgitation of their parents.) Here's my idea of a joyful alternative:

1. EDUCATE YOURSELF ON THE ORIGIN OF RELIGION. You can get the gist of it in minutes by googling the origin of religion. It becomes clear how it evolved from magic, superstition, animism, totems, traditional tales and finally into full blown metaphysical theories.

2. WAKE UP TO THE FACT THAT WE LIVE IN A MYSTERY. (Re:origin and destiny)

3. EMBRACE THE MYSTERY. Consider that it may have been designed that way--mysterious--as an intentional, possibly pleasurable, adventurous, growth producing, loving--gift to us. Get comfortable with not knowing any ultimate answers---develop an heroic tolerance for ambiguity.

4. USE EINSTEIN'S TECHNIQUE---THOUGHT EXPERIMENTS---to explore some possibilities. (he imagined himself riding a light beam and discovered a new "take" on physics.)

5. IMAGINE NEW POSSIBILITIES regarding our origin and destiny:

a. What if----God disappeared itself INTO THE UNIVERSE---condensing itself into matter--becoming galaxies, stars, planets, people---just for the grand adventure of slowly evolving matter back into spirit. Creation/evolution. (Hinduism? Pantheism?) Imagine your place in that scheme. (e.g., help push evolution forward)

b. Imagine that God bypasses Prophets and Holy books to personally guide each of us in our journey. (a subtle small voice within us) (Wayne's take on the matter?)

c. Imagine that there are not one but two primary forces at work in the world---at war with each other---each vying for your soul. (Zoroastrianism---my friend Gr?)

d. Imagine that there is no God---no human destiny. How would you spend your time?

e. Imagine that there is a God but he doesn't intervene in the world--no messages--no miracles--just watches the drama unfold. (Deism?)

EXPERIMENT WITH YOURSELF. Imagine a theory that appeals to you and try it on for size. Live for a time "as if" that theory were true. Does it feel right? Does it work for you? Does it need a bit of tweaking? Tweak it. If it doesn't feel "right" try another. Try living as if there were no God---How does that feel.

TWEET YOUR RESULTS: Share your experiences with your friends--with the world. Someone might have useful suggestions.

CONCLUSION: Believing is a cowardly cop out from the challenge of engaging mystery. The Joyful alternative to (conventional religion) is to create your own religion/philosophy. Join the rest of us freethinking/experimenters as we do for religion what wikipedia has done for data. We all join in the process of improving (or abandoning perhaps) metaphysics.
We have all been victimized by bad metaphysical/religious theories. Preachers, Prophets and Priest have lied to us with pretensions of certainty and "revealed" ethics. I say we can take these matters of ultimate concern into our own hands; that obedience to "Gods Will" is not as interesting a life as creative responsiveness to this dazzling mystery.

WHAT'S SO TERRIBLY WRONG ABOUT RELIGION AND WHAT IS THE JOYFUL ALTERNATIVE

RELIGION'S GREAT WRONG IS THAT IT IMPEDES THE FLOW OF ETHICS. (It aso exacerbates the tribalization of humanity and stimulates wars) Follow this reasoning:

BELIEVING THERE IS A GOD---IS NOT THE HEART OF THE PROBLEM. Even sensible people sometimes suspect or hope there may be intent---even purpose --in the universe---AND NO HARM IS DONE.

BELIEVING THAT GOD SENDS "MESSAGES"----THAT IS THE PROBLEM!

Almost all religions believe that GOD SENDS MESSAGES: In the form of "Holy Books" or Prophets or other "revelations".

THESE "MESSAGES" OFTEN CONFLICT---generating wars, social tension, imposing cruelty, irrationality, racism, and restraining social and scientific progress.

Do I need to prove this to you? (Islam: 4 wives permitted/ Christianity: Only one--at a time)

(Judiaism: God gave Palestine to the Jews//Islam: God gave palestine to Islamist!)

(Islam: Believing that Jesus is God is idolatry---punishable by hell )
(Christianity: not believing that Jesus is God----punishable by hell )

IT IS POSSIBLE TO BELIEVE IN GOD WITHOUT BELIEVING IN "MESSAGES" FROM GOD----It is called DEISM---Its what lots of people believe---Thomas Jefferson for example. (the notion that God created the world and endowed humanity with the wisdom to guide itself.)

BELIEVING THAT GOD SENDS " MESSAGES"--FREEZES/IMPEDES ETHICAL EVOLUTION--Can you see why?--- If God sends books or prophets with messages (and rules)about how we should live---then they are eternally valid, absolute and unchangable. Yet human history proves that ethics slowly evolves--and needs to--as situations change--and as our moral sympathy grows. In just one lifetime we have seen our notions of right and wrong change. ( womens right to vote, sex before marriage, divorce, homosexuality etc)

Over and over---religious believers have to be dragged into the new ethical understanding. (The Mormons having to be "dragged" away from polygamy and racism. The Southern Baptist dragged away from supporting slavery. Catholics being dragged toward birth control--divorce etc. (Today in Malta--the people are voting whether Divorce will be legal---only they and the Philipines still forbid by law) Every religion eventually arrives at a fork in the road where its REVEALED ETHICS is in conflict with good sense and the current FABRIC OF AGREEMENT.

I say it loud and clear: ETHICS IS NOT REVEALED---IT IS MADE-UP/CREATED BY HUMANS--IT GROWS OUT OF OUR RELATIONS WITH ONE ANOTHER--AND IT SLOWLY EVOLVES. ---usually for the better---we are today far more sensitive to the rights and feelings of others than in the past. Holy book ethics---"REVEALED" ETHICS IS A CRUEL OBSTRUCTIVE FORCE. Nowhere is this clearer than in Islamic societies: How long will the civilized world allow fanatical sons-o-bitches to opress women.

RANDY EXPLAINS: There are about 27 major "Holy Books" purporting to tell us--among other things---what is right and wrong---and how best to live our lives. They are all a lie and a trap:

They lie about their authority---people wrote them all---out of their own imagination--and what they tell and prescribe is no more or less valid than human imagination. They have no divine authority!

They trap millions--even billions--into ridiculous belief systems that---inhibit progress--foster cruelties--waste time and resources---clash with each other---distract us from more joyful, interesting lives. Oh please sweet people---read THE END OF FAITH by Sam Harris. It is a work of Genius.

I close (for today) with a list and a promise: A list of some of the "Holy Books"--claiming divine inspiration---and a Promise to complete this essay with my notion of a joyful alternative to believing this---stuff.

The Bible, The Koran, The Bagavad Gita, The Talmud, The Upanishads, The Vedas, The Book Of Mormon, The Urantia Book, Science and Health with key to the Scriptures, The Avestas of Zarathustra, Kitab-I-Aqdas, Adi-Granth, A Course in Miracles, etc.