Watch out for RIM

Based on what you read in the press, you'd think Apple had conquered the entire smartphone market, or maybe that they invented it in the first place. But to me the most surprising story in recent smartphone sales isn't Apple, it's the continuing rapid growth of Research in Motion.

Check out the latest numbers from Gartner (link). As you know if you've been reading this weblog for a while, I have very little faith in third party market share numbers. They're compiled from shipments self-reported by the vendors, and are subject to all sorts of inaccuracies (link). But they do give a very rough picture of what's happening in the market, and the picture they've been drawing recently is mildly astonishing.

Nokia is still the smartphone share leader, with about 41% unit share. But that's down 10 points from a year ago, on a shipment decrease of about 17% year over year. RIM is number two, with over 19% share and shipments up about 85% year over year. Apple is in third: 11% share, up 110% year over year.

So, roughly speaking, in smartphones Nokia is about twice the size of RIM, and RIM is about twice the size of Apple.

I have to put a caveat on that. Quarterly share and shipment growth fluctuates a lot depending on whether a company has just introduced a new product or is clearing inventory in preparation for a launch. So you have to look at several quarters:


Unit smartphone shipments, worldwide, in thousands. Source: Gartner.

That gives a slightly less apocalyptic view for Nokia. It had particularly huge shipments in Q4 of 2007, so it's down year over year, but overall its shipments are flat rather than collapsing. RIM and Apple are both definitely growing fast, though, with Apple's shipments fluctuating a lot as it adjusted inventory before and after the shipment of the iPhone 3G.

But let's put this all in perspective. The definition of "smartphone" is very sketchy; the way Gartner uses the term today, it refers to basically any phone that has an externally-programmable OS in it. Nokia deploys the Symbian OS in all of its high-end phones, so they are all classified as smartphones. So RIM's not really beating up on Nokia's smartphones, it is currently out-growing the entire top end of Nokia's product line. Project out the current trends for a year, and RIM would be close to overtaking Nokia in smartphones. No matter how you parse the numbers, that's pretty amazing.


Why don't you just die already?

This situation is all the more surprising considering that conventional wisdom has said for years that RIM was doomed. First e-mail phones were just a fad, an extension of the pager market. Then they were just a vertical product that only a few specialized groups like stock brokers would care about. Then Microsoft was on the verge of destroying RIM (not once, but every time a new version of Windows Mobile came out). Then RIM was fated to fall into irrelevance unless it licensed Blackberry clones. And on and on...

Fortunately, RIM completely ignored conventional wisdom and stuck to its core business. The rewards have been immense. In its most recent quarterly report (in December), RIM had a revenue run rate of about $12 billion a year, up more than 60% year over year, and profit of about $1 billion a year. The company now employs about 12,000 people. For comparison, RIM's revenue is now about the same as Apple's was four years ago.

Companies with $12 billion in revenue aren't supposed to grow 60% a year, especially when the economy is gasping, so I'll be intensely interested to see RIM's next quarterly report on April 2. In this economic climate I won't take anything for granted. But keep in mind that Nokia is already making ominous noises about its sales (link), while RIM says its unit growth has been accelerating (link).


Face reality

I think the big message from these numbers is that the analysts and press have done a terrible disservice to all of us by creating the fiction that there is a unified smartphone market. That hides the real news. For example, IDG's writeup on the Gartner sales report focused on overall growth of smartphone sales and didn't even mention RIM until the sixth paragraph (link).

I use the term smartphone "market" here for convenience, but as I've said before, there really isn't a single unified smartphone market and there probably never will be, because different people want different things from their phones (link).

If you look carefully at the shipment numbers, this is blindingly obvious. The smartphones from RIM (and Apple) are differentiated products that have special features appealing to particular segments of users (RIM for e-mail fanatics, Apple for entertainment-hounds). They solve customer problems in unique ways that people can value, so their sales are relatively resistant to an economic downturn. Not immune, but I think they're likely to fall less than the others.

And since Apple and RIM serve different markets, they can grow rapidly side by side. One doesn't usually steal sales from the other.

But Nokia has never had a strong play with this sort of product. Most of its smartphones are bought as high-end mobile phones, purchased by technophiles and status-conscious people with money. When the overall phone market slows down, they slow down too.

The analyst numbers told Nokia a comforting fantasy that it was the dominant smartphone company, when in fact it was a very secondary player in the markets served by RIM and Apple. I think this let Nokia avoid the agonizing changes in product development that are required to make a truly differentiated smart phone.

Instead, Nokia has gone off on tangents attacking Google, Microsoft, iTunes, and just about every other target I can think of in computing. It's a bit like a guy at his home putting up wallpaper in the upstairs bathroom while out in the yard his car is on fire.

I continue to be intrigued by parts of Nokia's strategy, especially the Ovi services suite. Nokia will be able to push Ovi out to hundreds of millions of mobile phone users. In theory, that might be a very powerful way for the company to build a mobile data business. But it could be crippled if the most data-hungry users have already been siphoned away by Apple and RIM.


What happens to RIM?

The question about RIM is what are the natural limits on its growth. Not everyone wants an e-mail phone, although RIM has already stretched the market a lot more than I thought they could. But I think the bigger threat may actually be within the company. Beyond about $10 billion in revenue, a tech company starts to require different management techniques. There's enough going on that management has to delegate much more than it did in the past, and processes have to be set up to ensure quality work and smart decision-making in the lower reaches of the company. That transition is incredibly hard for the leaders of a startup to make, and I wonder if the bug-filled launch of the Blackberry Storm wasn't a symptom of a company growing beyond its processes.

On the other hand, RIM has such a long history of beating my expectations that I'm not going to bet against them again.

THE KING OF KODGERS VISITS A DYING CULT

Never mind the spelling--they welcome such as me. Their neighbors speak well of them. (I asked several)
You'd have to admit--they're aiming high.
I drive in with just a smidgen of trepidation----thinking: Here comes a new adventure!
A lovely, well kept pool, open to all it seems--the neighboring kids come often they said.
Elect Philip Lake greeted, subtley screened me and toured me.
Elect David---taciturn---Did not readily engage.
Elect Star --The soft spoken leader of the group succeeding Elect Gold.
I couldn't restrain myself---I flirted with her!The main building was exactly 120 feet long by scriptural decree and was one large room with kitchen,dining and living area.
My first meal with them. They did not object to my curiosity or photography. Notice the absence of a fork and the measuring cup with exactly one cup of water. The white stuff is sweet cream the yellow is apricots. I enjoyed the meal--felt virtuous
They sing every night at 7:30 before retiring. I did my best to keep the tune.
A songbook page--regularly amended. This song written by Elect Star is to the tune of Born to Lose.
The arrow points the spot where the new age begins.

Definition of cult: A minority religion regarded with disapproval by the majority.
(I remind my readers that Christianity itself was once a cult. Also that I use the word here in a non pejorative sense)

Traveling Interstate 8 between Yuma and Gila Bend, Az I suddenly recalled hearing about an odd religious group living far out in the desert beyond Sentinal. Inquiring at its only store, I learned that the group still functions—and got directions. I have time and curiosity so I found them, miles out a dirt road, and drove boldly into their palm lined driveway, parking by a large swimming pool.

A thin, 80ish guy came out and introduced himself as Elect Lake Philip. I was ready with my intro: I’m Randy; I’ve heard about your good work here and wanted to come meet you. In minutes I was warmly ensconced into the heart of things, taken on a tour, introduced all round, invited to dinner and to stay the night. I accepted.

Winning my way to the warm is the upside of my “pleasing personality.” Trust me there is a downside!

Dinner was strange if not bizarre. Each plate contained a date and a banana, a sweet paste of nuts and seeds, cream and apricots. No meat! And most surprisingly, no forks. (they are associated with meat eating) Each person received EXACTLY the same amount of food; carefully measured. We drank water from measuring cups. They told me the practice of measuring was based on scripture. After a hand holding ritual of thanks, we ate in silence.

At precisely 7:30 we adjourned to the comfortable living room to sing. The songs were all new; Songs they had written, though often the tune was familiar. Turns out, New is a big word with these folks. Anyone joining receives a new name. I sang out loud getting into the spirit of things; beginning to feel comfortable with my new friends-----odd octogenarians.

They sleep separately–no sex–ever. I slept in my rig. Next day they all came to see the Stealth trailer–especially interested in my solar power. They aspire to get off the grid .

Before noon I finally managed to get with Elect Star, the leader of the group. As she was carefully measuring out food she answered my questions about their history and doctrines. Here’s their story in summary: In 1949 a charismatic female preacher in Canada (later renaming herself Elect Gold) had visions of end times and a special mission. About a hundred of the flock joined her but the number dwindled to 12 when she was defrocked by her church. They wandered the US, living in tents and vehicles, for 12 years, barely earning enough to eat. Another vision showed them this particular 80 acres and they managed to buy it. They’ve been here for 40 odd years, making a lovely oasis of it. A generous benefactor willed substantial money to them so that now no one needs to work for money. They just go about their assorted interest and simple rituals. Occasionally they travel to visit family, and friends come here to visit. Walk-ins like myself are welcome.

Elect Star and I had a great time sharing boondocking secrets. She knew about the Slabs, Quartzsite and Oh My God hot springs.

Their founder died at age 98 and is buried in Buckeye, Az. They cling to the belief that they are the harbingers of a new age–showing the way with their lives –and that this particular spot is where the great transformation will begin. I think they liked me and would have had me stay awhile, but after another carefully measured meal of beets, beans, dates and the requisite one cup of water I bid them farewell. They provisioned me with a big bag of really good dates.

I like these people–think they are harmless and even well meaning–modern day monks and nuns approaching life’s end holding on to their founders vision. Better this life than one of assorted addictions but much less than a life of self actualization. I didn’t have the heart to ask if they sometimes doubted the visions and doctrines of Gold. World weary people are sometimes drawn to this sort of mystical escapism ----soothing perhaps in the short run—boring in the long—I saw it in their eyes as I drove away—they wanted to go with me!

Speech recognition: Almost ready for mobile prime time

I've always wanted to see speech recognition incorporated into mobile devices. Since you don't have a big keyboard when you're on the go, you ought to be able to just talk to your phone and tell it what to do, or dictate memos to it and have it convert them into e-mails or SMS messages. In addition to being incredibly convenient, this would increase the safety of a lot of drivers. It's a spooky fact, but in surveys I've done more than 10 percent of the US population admitted to sometimes sending text messages while driving.

Not smart, not safe.

So, is voice recognition good enough to let you just talk to your mobile device and then send the converted text as a message?

I first asked myself that question a couple of years ago when I bought a copy of Dragon NaturallySpeaking and a small voice recorder. I tried recording weblog posts and other documents while driving, and then brought the recorded sound back to my computer to convert it into text. The result was a disaster. Dragon was unable to keep pace with the recorded sound in the files, and started dropping sentences, paragraphs, and eventually entire pages of spoken text. I was so disgusted, and so disappointed, that I gave up and went back to listening to sports talk radio while I drove.

Recently a newly appointed product manager at Nuance (publisher of Dragon) sent out a survey asking for feedback on the product. Unlike most product managers, she signed the survey form with her own name and with her own e-mail address. Most product managers wouldn't do that because they don't want to be overwhelmed with feedback. I don't know how much feedback she got in general, or how overwhelming it was, but she got a note back from me describing my problems with the product and explaining why I really wasn't satisfied with it.

I didn't expect to get any reply from the company; Nuance has a remarkably restrictive policy on providing technical support unless you pay extra for it. Usually, companies that do that aren't interested in getting any sort of conversation going with their customers. But to my surprise, I got a note from the product manager not only sympathizing with my problems but offering to send me a copy of the latest version of the software and a voice recorder that she said would work well with the software. I wish my weblog address hadn't been in my signature, so I would know if they do this sort of thing for every frustrated user. But anyway I took her up on the offer.

You can see the results here. I dictated this weblog post using the voice recorder, synced it onto my computer for recognition, and then corrected the (few) errors by hand. There are pluses and minuses to the dictation system. The good news is that the program can now keep up with my dictated speech. I no longer lose sentences or paragraphs of text. I'm also surprised with the way the product recognizes trade names, so for instance when I say Home Depot or McDonald's or Nike or Apple or IKEA or Lowes, Dragon gets the names correct and properly capitalized (I didn't have to fix anything in that sentence).

On the other hand it does make mistakes -- the packaging claims about 99% accuracy, which means that you should expect one word in every hundred to be incorrect. My guess is that I'm getting somewhere between 97 and 99% accuracy. That's not bad. In fact, it's pretty darned impressive. But in practice it still means you have to go back and do a lot of corrections.

The training is close to torture: reading aloud a 20-minute excerpt from a Dilbert book while trying to pronounce every word correctly. Later I tried setting up the program without any training, and it worked exactly the same. So my advice is to skip the training.

The software is not great at understanding where punctuation should be placed in the text. I have learned that I have to give grammatical guidance by saying things like "comma," "period," and "new paragraph" in order to make sure that the text will be reasonably well formatted.

If I just speak naturally the text will come out like this making it very difficult for anyone else to read and even making it hard for me to edit without punctuation inserted it is very hard to get tell where a sentence was supposed to end and another one start add in a few wreck cognition errors by the soft wear and the text is not something you would want to send to someone uncorrected

Speaking with punctuation is unnatural, and could be somewhat distracting while driving. I have to think carefully about the text that I'm dictating, and I believe for some people that could cause them not to pay enough attention to what's happening on the road. I think I can do it safely or I wouldn't do it, but it definitely is an issue to consider.

Overall, I think this approach will make me a bit more productive, so I should be able to produce a little bit more weblog content and maybe get some other sorts of things done as well.

So it's nice for me, and I finally feel like I got my money's worth from Dragon. But is the technology ready for broad deployment in mobile devices?

I think the answer is technically yes, but practically no. Mobile devices are casual-use; tasks that require too much commitment or effort just don't get used. Without careful attention to spoken punctuation, the software produces errors and the sort of run-on text you saw above. Even in a short message, I think it's likely that you'd get more mistakes than you'd find acceptable. Correcting those errors on a small screen with no mouse would be tedious at best (it's an annoying task even on a PC).

More importantly, the software is very sensitive to the quality of the sound file coming into it. I believe most phone microphones and headsets wouldn't produce the required quality. You'd probably get better results with a service that just records your speech and has someone in India retype it (such services exist today).

So, the news from the world of voice recognition is hopeful for mobile users but not yet wonderful. The technology is good enough that you can definitely use it as a substitute for typing if you have physical problems. It's also a useful PC productivity tool for someone who generates a lot of text for a living.

However, I think we're not yet quite at the point where you can just talk to your phone and have it reliably transform all of your speech into text. It's getting better, but it's not all the way there yet. For a mobile device, the dream of just talking is still a dream. But I do think it's a dream that's getting closer to reality.

===========

PS: I'd also like to compliment Kristen Wylie, the product manager at Nuance who responded to my message. Take notes, folks, this is the right way to communicate with customers online -- sign your real name, use an address they can respond to rather than a no-replies mailbox, and when someone has a problem help them solve it.

TWEAKING THE TRIBE

A "focus bringer" is absolutely essential for social cohesion. This day I am quoting from Walt Whitman's "Song of the Open Road."
Dancing under the stars
Ron Sinor, inventor of the desert dance floor tests it out with Donna Huffer. It withstood 2 weeks of heavy traffic.
The burning Kayak. Diana has much better coverage of this ceremony in her blogsite: www.lifeontheopenroad.blogspot.com
Visitors to our singles ice cream social.
CREATING CULTURE

Myself and 6 of my friends decided to tinker with our tribe’s culture–in a big way! With the cooperation of 185 members who attended our Quartzsite, Az gathering, we conducted 7 bold experiments. Amazingly, every one of them was a spectacular success.

1. TEAM HOSTING. Usually one or two people take on the job. This time we split the task 7 ways and found it ridiculously easy.

2. BUILT A DESERT DANCE FLOOR. Yes we did! And for only $70 we engineered a usable smooth surface over the rocks; removing the largest of them, coating with sand, covering with outdoor carpeting and finally securing a taunt tarp over all. Worked like a charm! We danced our boodies off night after night under the stars. Oh so romantic! Our people loved it–we saved a fortune in bar tabs and next year we’ll build a whopper.

3. CONDUCTED A SPEED DATING SESSION. Two long lines of chairs on the desert, —gals and guys face to face—2 minutes each to ask whatever—then on to the next. NO IT’S NOT E-HARMONY scientific matching but it was good enough–fun and enlightening for all.

4. HOSTED A MULTI-GROUP ICE CREAM SOCIAL. Distributed fliers to all singles groups in the area inviting them over. A hundred or so visitors showed up and we mingled in the rain–hopefully spreading good will. A good time was had by all.

5. INVENTED A NEW RITUAL. ‘BURNING KAYAK’ About a third of us carry Kayaks and one whole travel circuit is devoted to kayaking, so we threw out the challenge for someone to build us a sacrificial kayak out of firewood scraps to serve as focus to our ritual. (as in the burning man festival in Nevada) Surprise, a boatright, James, volunteered and astoundingly, had it built in two days; a full sized kayak made of wood and cardboard. Barb and Clair choreographed a new conga line style dance for the ceremony. Then, at the appointed time and to the tune of Proud Mary we danced in a long line in the desert and then round and round the fire as it burned. ABSOLUTELY TERRIFIC–WE ALL GOT LOST IN THE MOMENT.

6. OPENED UP OUR HOMES FOR INSPECTION—RIG TOURS. Those willing, let everyone see the inside of our campers; especially showing off our unique adaptations. The STEALTH TRAILER as always was the object of much curiosity.

7. FORMED AN ISSUES COMMITTEE —to deal with those rare but serious breaches of our code of conduct: RESPONSIBLE, RESPECTFUL, RESPECTABLE.

8. HELD A SADIE HAWKINS DANCE—A minor—frosting on the cake experiment where the ladies were required to do the asking. They got the hang of it quickly and so did we—fun!

RANDY PHILOSOPHIZES: All of us come to consciousness within a particular culture (shared beliefs, values, practices) and live within it like fish within water, hardly noticing it. Visit another culture—go to Mexico or visit the Amish and suddenly you become conscious of your own. Cultures often imprison peoples mind and spirit like Mormonism or Jehovas Witness or Islam. I escaped my fundamentalist Baptist culture and find life incredibly richer for having done so—I never danced till I was 27—a bit of Baptist repression.

My mobile tribe is young and our culture is still forming----a great opportunity to help create a brand-new one. Some years ago I laid out our first camping circuit, a string of short hop gatherings and was delighted that it caught on and is now part of our culture. Another of our members organized a dance rally that also caught on and is an exciting annual fixture. Still another started a kayaking circuit that is now standard.

I’m convinced we can create a culture that fits us rather than adjusting ourselves to it----and that we can do it very quickly. One or more of our experiments at Quartzsite might become part of our culture. How sweet to escape an unsuitable culture and find a suitable one. How double sweet to participate in shaping it!

A COMET SWEEPS THROUGH MY SOLAR SYSTEM

Pia visiting me in my rig. When standing, her head just touches my ceiling. Her name is a shortened derivative from a word meaning "peaceful soul."
Only I seem to be sweating in the Somewhere Bar, Bouse, Az. Her energy and stamina are legendary--often dancing every dance.
Pia shows off her modest trailer--22ft and cozy. She has no yen for more.
The world famous Desert Bar---remote---solar powered juke joint--open only on the weekends.
Pia poses reluctantly where couples often marry. It's an odd "church"--no congregation and only one wall---an addendum to the desert bar.

First, a note to my readers: I’ve been busy living! It interferes with writing and vice versa. Here’s my latest adventure.

Now and again you meet someone so sparklingly different that they alter the way you live; like a close passing comet jostles the orbit of a small planet. It’s happened to me these past two weeks.

I’ve had the pleasure of interacting with an exotic, solitary, vagabond lady; so tall her head brushes my ceiling; so slender you think of a racehorse. Her home is Switzerland where she works just long enough to accumulate traveling funds, then returns to the American West for adventure. Flying into Amarillo, Texas, she retrieves her truck and trailer from a good friend in Hartley, Texas who keeps them travel ready, then she is off indulging her whims.

One such whim was to be a cowgirl. Driving up to a remote Nevada ranch, she asked for a chance to be a cowgirl-- and got it—rounded up cattle—she loved it!

To recount more of her exploits would impress you but distract from my purpose. You get the idea—she is daringly bold–and did I mention, stunningly beautiful.

Forget any romantic connection. I quickly grasped that was not in the cards, but somehow she chose to spend time with me–perhaps because I’m a good listener and everyone wants to be understood. (the oracle lady explained that it was because I showed interest in her story) Then again, perhaps its because I too can become wild on the dance floor–as she does. Whatever, I’m grateful.

Here’s a sample of her style: We go for a walk in the desert 7 miles from Quartzsite, Az; On a whim she suggests we walk all the way to town–cross country. My macho kicked in and damned if we didn’d make it cross deep gullies and all. Once there, she’s hungry and orders a two pound megaburger with fries. The waitress suggested she might not be able to eat so much. She simply stood up, unfolding her amazonian frame. The waitress said “OH” and handed in the order. SHE ATE IT ALL!

Another sample of her style: We go to the famous Desert Bar, a converted gold mine, far in the boondocks beyond Parker, Az; the band is playing rock and roll; I release her hands so I can do my solitary wiggles. I think she took it as a challenge–show me what ya got–because she suddenly shifted gears doing a dance I had never seen before; bouncing horse-like, whirling like a ballerina, knifing between other dancers around the full perimeter, rocking in perfect rhythm to the music–as seductive as Salome dancing before Herod–absolutely mesmerizing! Jaws dropped all round. Even the band members were stunned–reluctant to end the song. No one noticed my feeble wiggles–I didn’t care! Like others, my heart expanded to witness such living joy. My friends later joked that she had demonstrated the real “Dance of Testosterone.” (My best known poem)

Another sample of her style: We’re at a dance and she asked me which lady in the crowd I fancied. I indicated a curvy blond trapped, it seemed, by a watchful partner. She immediately broke between them whisking the guy happily away, leaving the lady of my fancy free to dance with me.

Another sample: The scene is the Yacht club, Quartzsite’s primo watering hole. In walks a town big shot with his enterage. He spots the beautiful lady and tells her he will dance with her if she will remove her hat. Barely turning to acknowledge the mogul, she pleasantly responded: “no thanks.” He is so stung by this rare rejection that he leaves immediately. Wealth does not impress her.

I could go on, but you get the idea. This is a different breed of cat that crossed my path. Here is a person blessed with dazzling beauty–even at 50 plus years, strangely unsuited or unwilling for mating, never married, driven it seems to eternal adventuring. She affects all she engages–pleasantly or sometimes painfully as those who grasp at her soon learn.

With those who sense her rhythm, she will dance the dance of the moment. She treats with special respect unlovely people. I watched her engage a bearded outcast, waking up his downcast spirit.

She lives frugally so she may adventure widely; camping alone in the desert. ( Currently a quarter mile distant from others in her modest 22 foot trailer.

I occasionally encounter solitary wandering women such as the one in outlaw canyon. This one is markedly different because she moves toward, not away from the drama of life. She enjoys her body, lives sustainably, responds to her fascinations. She does not claim to have solved life’s mysteries–is not religious–but has an intuitive value system that guides her nicely down the road.

I’ve moved on and so has she, though we remain in contact. I live and dance more spontaneously for having this comet (with a beautiful tail) pass through my orbit. She is living proof of the energy released when we let go of ego, wanting and defensiveness. A master teacher in not clinging or grasping at life’s gifts.....I just flashed on an old poem of mine:
........These pleasures like the waters will
Brush us by then down the hill.
I let them go without delay,
Millions more are on the way.

News flash: Microsoft lied

"I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!" --Claude Rains, Casablanca

I'm a little late in getting to this item, but I recently came across James Plamondon's online confession that he lied while working as a technology evangelist for Microsoft (link). Actually, "lied" is probably the wrong word. James systematically misled and manipulated software developers, and enthusiastically taught others at Microsoft how to do the same. Some samples from his work there:

Working behind the scenes to orchestrate "independent" praise of our technology, and damnation of the enemy's, is a key evangelism function... "Independent" analyst's report should be issued, praising your technology and damning the competitors (or ignoring them). "Independent" consultants should write columns and articles, give conference presentations and moderate stacked panels, all on our behalf (and setting them up as experts in the new technology, available for just $200/hour). "Independent" academic sources should be cultivated and quoted (and research money granted). "Independent" courseware providers should start profiting from their early involvement in our technology....

Analysts sell out - that's their business model. But they are very concerned that they never look like they are selling out, so that makes them very prickly to work with....

The key to stacking a panel is being able to choose the moderator. Most conference organizers allow the moderator to select the panel, so if you can pick the moderator, you win. Since you can't expect representatives of our competitors to speak on your behalf, you have to get the moderator to agree to having only "independent ISVs" on the panel....Sounds marvelously independent doesn't it? In fact, it allows us to stack the panel with ISVs that back our cause....

Get a well-known consultant on your side early, but don't let him publish anything blatantly pro-Microsoft. Then, get him to propose himself to the conference organizers as a moderator, whenever a panel opportunity comes up. Since he's well-known, but apparently independent, he'll be accepted....

A Jihad is a road trip. in which an evangelist visits a large number of ISVs one-on-one to convince them to take some specific action. The classic Jihad is one focused on getting Tier A ISVs to commit to supporting a given technology by signing the technology's Letter of Agreement...As in sales, the purpose of the exercise is to close – to get the mark the ISV to sign on the dotted line, in pen, irrevocably.

The Role of ISVs
* Pawns in the struggle....
* Valuable pawns
o We can't win without 'em
o Must take good care of them
* Can't let 'em feel like pawns
o Treat them with respect (as you use them)

Developer Conferences....
* Subvert independent conferences
o Love them to death

Developer Magazines
* Same as developer conferences
* Infiltrate and subvert

You can see the details here. Be sure to skim the comments at the bottom. They're a hoot.

Speaking as someone who led the competitive teams at Apple and Palm for many years, I guess I ought to get worked up about this stuff. But mostly I think it's just old and tired. The whole "Microsoft is evil" theme is kind of pathetic these days, like the trial of an 85-year-old mobster. Yeah, I know, they deserve everything that Google's doing to them. Let's move on.

It's also not really news that a lot of analysts and conferences are on the take. For the record, you should always understand who's paying the bills when any "authority" talks.

I'm usually not moved by someone who apologizes only after being exposed in court and abandoned by his employer (link). But I'll take James at his word that he's trying to make amends.

Apology accepted, James.

That doesn't mean, though, that I agree with his prescription on what the industry should do about the situation. James says the best way to prevent a recurrence of Microsoft's misdeeds is to set professional standards for evangelism:

Microsoft...is this week launching its first public volley in the Mother of All Standards Battles, to control the de facto standards of cloud computing. For Microsoft, this is a life-or-death struggle. When Microsoft's back is to the wall, can it reasonably be expected to refrain from using the TE tactics that it KNOWS will help it win, if its use of those tactics is unrestrained?.... This problem can only be treated, I believe, by professionalizing TE, and thereby inoculating platform vendors against unethical TE practices. That's why I felt compelled to come forward now. Only now have I realized how wrong I was, and by coming forward now, in the opening skirmishes of the Cloud Computing Wars, I can begin to make amends for my past wrong-doing.

James is even writing a book on what he thinks those professional standards should be. That ought to be an interesting read. Maybe Amazon could do a two-for-one offer with the Martha Stewart Guide to Ethical Investing.

But I think the real problem isn't missing standards, it's missing morality. I believe James was able to thrive at Microsoft because the company's hypercompetitive culture condoned dishonesty, as long as you didn't get caught in public. Everybody in the industry believed they worked that way. I think the problem wasn't just in Microsoft's evangelism, it also included the company's marketing, business development, and so on.

Unfortunately, they're not the only company in the tech industry that thinks that way.

The real cure here is not to read a book or professionalize anything. Just take a course in business ethics. Or better yet, save your money and memorize this rule:

Never mislead a customer or partner.

And if an appeal to morality isn't enough to move you, keep in mind that even the cleverest liars eventually get outed. Just ask James Plamondon.

(By the way, James, if you really want to make amends, how about sending the royalties from your book to the stockholders of the companies you damaged or destroyed?)

==============

Thanks to Andrew Shebanow for pointing out this issue, in a cool little essay here.

The Palm Pre: Think Similar

Palm died. Palm OS died. Get over it.

Now let's talk about this new company, and product, that happens to be named Palm. I don't know if they'll survive or not, but they have a chance, and they're definitely interesting.

That was my overall impression after visiting Palm at CES 2009. The differences started with the meeting room itself. Rather than shelling out for a (very expensive) booth, Palm had an upstairs display room off the show floor. That in itself is not unusual; companies low on money often take a display room at CES so they can have some sort of presence at the show. Usually they get very little traffic, because you have to make an effort to find them.

But there was a short line outside Palm's room. A friend and I got into line, and the Palm folks asked us for our business cards. They went away for about 30 seconds, came back, and pulled us both out of line. "You can go right in."

I'm not sure why they did it, since neither of us are VIPs. But somebody was screening the cards and pulling out anyone whose name they recognized. That was the first sign that I was dealing with a different company -- although the old Palm was pretty well organized, that level of attention to detail would have been unusual.

The second difference came when we entered the room itself. A display room at CES usually is an empty space about 40 feet (13m) or more on a side, with one big presentation screen, some chairs, and a couple of demo stations along the walls. You can take in the whole thing in 30 seconds. Instead, Palm had divided its space into almost a maze, with little meeting rooms (lined with couches) and corridors, all set off by gauze curtains. Along the "corridors" were abundant food carts (with servers, another unusual touch), and small stations where employees were giving continuous Pre demos to groups of up to about a dozen people. You could get very close and intimate with the device, although no touching was allowed.

It felt like a technology harem.

I don't think the old Palm would have decorated quite like that, let alone shell out that much money for exhibit space in a time of layoffs and financial stress.

The presenters were extremely well briefed and disciplined, although they didn't feel robotic. They showed the features they wanted us to see, and wouldn't be baited into going further. The overall impression of the space and staff was extreme design consciousness, a bit of opulence, and intense discipline.

Very un-Palm-like. More like boutique Apple without the rock star CEO.


Think Similar

The theme continued in the product. The Pre does not look like the Treo or any previous Palm product. If anything, it looks like an iPhone with some of its limitations fixed. The design of the hardware, graphics, the fonts, the way things move on screen, and the touchscreen gestures are all elegant, and reminded me intensely of the iPhone. You can even do a pinch gesture to shrink and expand things, which I thought was patented by Apple (this shows why I'm not a lawyer).

Unlike an iPhone, you can run multiple applications at the same time and switch between them. There's a thumb keyboard built in. The battery can be replaced. The APIs are supposedly based on web standards, so many people should be able to program the Pre without learning a new OS. Palm says it will have a software store built in, but the app approval process won't be as restrictive as Apple's. Palm will also apparently allow companies to port other platforms, like Adobe Flash, to the Pre, which addresses another iPhone drawback. (There's a comparison table between the iPhone and Pre here, but it focuses mostly on hardware specs.)

In contrast to all the iPhone references, it's very hard to spot any Palm legacy in the Pre (other than the company logo). The calendar still compresses unused hours, which was one of my favorite Palm features. But literally that was the main similarity that I noticed.

The device won't run current Palm OS apps, although I think Palm is open to someone porting a Palm OS emulator to the device if they want to. But I don't know how you'd operate those apps without a stylus. The browser is based on Webkit, so no more Blazer (yay).

The design of the interface looks nothing like Palm OS. Palm's old design ethic was all about sacrificing beauty in order to produce maximum utility. The result was often extremely efficient but plain (okay, ugly). The new Palm treats aesthetics like Apple does -- the device has to be useful, playful, and beautiful. That's incredibly hard to design, but apparently Palm has imported enough Apple talent to pull it off (or at least to make the demos look good).


Will Palm survive?

Prior to CES, it was fashionable for a lot of people online to predict Palm's imminent demise. That was a misreading of how the world works -- we technology insiders lose interest in a brand long before the public does. Palm still has a strong name, and it will get a good hearing in the market.

So the real question is, is the Pre good enough to make Palm profitable? I think it's too early to answer.

For one thing, we can't touch the product yet. The canned demos were incomplete -- I didn't see the dialer or the software store, for example, and I don't know details of how the product will sync. The SDK hasn't been released, so we don't know what it will be like to create apps for the device.

But my biggest concern is about the strategy, not the product. I'm not sure who the customer is for the Pre. Dr. Rob Enderle took time off from diagnosing Steve Jobs' medical condition (link) to tell a San Jose radio station that the Pre is a better e-mail device than the iPhone and a better consumer device than a Blackberry. Which is probably true, but misses the point -- it's probably a worse entertainment device than the iPhone (because it doesn't have iTunes) and probably a worse e-mail device than RIM (because it doesn't have RIM's server infrastructure). So who exactly is it best for?

Mobile devices that sell well usually have a well-defined market of people who look at them and say, "that one's perfect for me." The Pre is intensely elegant, which intrigues aficionados like me, but there aren't enough of us to make a lasting market. Beyond that, it's apparently perfect for people who want a compromise between a Blackberry and an iPhone, but don't need the best of either. Who are those people? And are there enough of them to make a business for Palm? I honestly don't know.

I guess the old Palm installed base might be a first source of customers, but many of them have moved on. Although there's a lot of enthusiasm on the Palm discussion forums (for a wonderfully detailed article, check here), longtime Palm users don't appear to have a lot of compelling ties holding them to the new device. Their old apps won't work, and they'll have to learn a new interface. Usually when a company makes a transition like this without backward compatibility, the user base reads it as an invitation to consider alternatives. Palm cannot take them for granted -- and even if it could, they alone are not enough to sustain the company.


What it means for the industry

Regardless of whether Palm survives, I think the Pre does some important things to the industry. It's the first smartphone that matches the iPhone on overall UI aesthetics, and it fixes many of the drawbacks of the iPhone. Other smartphone companies will be under pressure to match the Pre's features. Mobile companies like Samsung and Motorola, which lack software expertise, look increasingly vulnerable to gradual share erosion.

I'm very hopeful about the application development model for the Pre. By basing its development model on web standards, Palm apparently will empower the world's vast base of web app developers to quickly create Pre applications. If Palm implements the APIs right, that is a very smart move. It aligns Palm with the forces of the web, and might even make Pre the preferred mobile development platform of the web app community.

I don't know if that alone can make the Pre a success -- mobile devices usually build a base first with a particular function and then branch into apps. But it gives Palm a much better shot than it would have had if it tried to create yet another proprietary platform. The brass ring in the mobile app world is getting the attention of the web app community, and Palm now has a shot at it.

Google, are you listening?


What to do if you're a user

Wait.

We'll learn tons more about the Pre as it gets closer to shipping. Apple's undoubtedly working on new iPhone products (I'm betting on a smaller device, like a Nano version of the iPhone), RIM's getting the Storm debugged, Nokia is finishing the N97, and there are rumored to be more Android devices coming.* If you're thinking about getting a smartphone, you're going to have a great selection later this year. Hold out until you understand more about your choices.

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*There are probably some more Windows Mobile products coming too, but does anyone care any more?