THE SLABS--AN AMERICAN PHENOMENON--PART 4 DRAMA

DRAMA IS THE INTERPLAY OF FORCES----- DRAMA--- AND NOT LOVE--- IS WHAT THE UNIVERSE IS ABOUT. Ancient Hindus were the first to intuit this---weaving it into their religion--making it the cornerstone of their philosophy. (The Bagavad Gita) In summary, their notion is this: Unchanging ETERNITY---(spirit)---yearning to escape its tedium---yearning for SURPRISE---(changedevelopmentcomplexityevolutiondestructionrenewalfeeling) DESCENDS into timeenergymatter---for the sheer JOY of the adventure. ONLY THE HINDUS---consequently----have a sensible answer to the question: why is there evil in the world? They say: TO THICKEN THE PLOT!!



I LOVE DRAMA----swim in it as artfully as I can---stir it up often---I'm famous in my tribe for stirring drama at the campfire---making enemies and admirers---and I relish both. If I am late to a campfire I will often be summoned to "get things going."



THUS I LOVE THE SLABS---come look with me at the kaleidoscopic drama unfolding here.

SALVATION MOUNTAIN---a speck of religious art--in a vast desert. The fruit of a simple, obsessed mind and determined will---about 15 years of daily work---Here is SPECTACLE --- created in an unspectacular setting. The drama ?-----A powerful will lifting a weak mind to glory. Shopenhauer and Nietzsche are vindicated---WILL IS more fundamental than reason!!

And here's colorful evidence.

Now I will pick up some loose ends of my story----The 5 experiments my tribe chose to run----during our visit. What you are seeing is a moment from our SPOOKY WALK SING SING-----a bunch of bold, brazen singers meandering into the dark scary bushes and backlands of the Slabs on a moonless night to SERENADE the mavericks in their holes and dens. Bagpipe Bob accompanied us with the Unforgetable whine of his instrument. To say they were stunned is understatement----Rousing from their beds and campfires---shaking their dusty heads in disbelief---lighting our group with flashlights---THEN SUDDENLY "getting it" their hearts swelled up and they joined us in song and cheered mightily when we finished. Bob---loving drama perhaps as much as I do---finished each stop playing an irresistable irish jig---then we all danced---and some of the denizens too---what great fun---and DRAMA--late night singing and jigging in the Spooky Zone.

This is one terrific guy---You've seen him in full dress on a previous blog entry. A much loved member of our tribe.

A WIKI--TREE DECORATION. We all went to our rigs and came back with something to decorate our "tree". (creosote bush). Our 3 other experiments included: A STAR WHEEL--- On a chilly night we all lay in a big wheel formation--bundled up and on tarps---and watched the heavens together--for a long time. (a soothing, healing, bonding experience) Another experiment was to begin each assembly with a joke told by a different member each time.

The 5th experiment was to dip into the minds of some Slab characters in Q&A sessions I was able to arrange. You'll see!

Another dramatic loose end to wrap up. Remember the guy in the previous entry buying a goat and having it killed and skinned? Here's what he wanted the skin for. He wanted a deep sounding drum. Was still stretching and tying when I came back to check on his progress. What struck me was his stiff pose. I'm sure it means something but can't put my finger on it. Anyway, the cruel unfeeling slaughter of a harmless goat reminded me of witnessing my first and only bullfight. I asked a nearby Mexican if the cruelty troubled him. He "explained" with the enthusiastic confidence only religious people have---"Oh no! This is not cruelty! You see---"ANIMALS DON'T HAVE SOULS".

Can you see this plane? It's the Osprey----the multi- billion dollar--vertical take off and landing--troop carrier of such controversy. Testing continues over the Slabs and nearby gunnery range.

Better than a helicopter because it flies much faster--when its props are turned forward---like this..

And back to slab drama---Two giant abandoned water tanks (17 ft high--100 ft in diameter) luring artists to express themselves. Dragons, Dinosaurs Teriodactles etc ----dramatic enough by themselves---The drama here is INVITING SURFACES linking up with artistic minds.

The second tank---its invitational space filled to overflowing with sexual explicitness. I know the artist---and these drawings are faithful renderings of what's in his head. So sexually saturated are these walls that I announced to my group that the interior of the tank had become a SENSUAL VORTEX and that all who enter would be dynamically reborn erotically----women would be revirginized and men re vigorized. And so we arranged to enter the tank and conduct a ritual. Here's the full story as recorded by my ex in her excellent blog:

http://lifeontheopenroad.blogspot.com/2008/12/you-want-to-go-where-and-do-what.html

The joiners---those preferring to cluster camp with others make up about half the Slab population and occupy about half the available land-----and oddly enough---the cluster of clusters are clustered together---three clubs within a stone's throw of each other. The big time drama of this club was that it's members recently split over the issue of rules versus no rules---order versus anarchy. The no rules people won and most "order" people left. Chaos quickly reigned as petty disputes with no "system" to resolve them spiraled into vengence and violence.

I interviewed an "order" refugee who was enjoying the drama of anarchist getting what they wished for. She bided her time---confident that order would return.

One of 5 clustered trailers composing the LOW (loners on Wheels) compound. I don't have the picts to do justice to this group---by far the largest---most stable of the clustered folks. They have a decades long history--an evolved constitution--traditions---and an impressive infrastructure of kitchen, meeting /eating area, theater room, library, card room, dance area, etc. These are older folks, happy to be in a group of their peers. Their drama, surprisingly, is their success. Having solved survival and "belonging" issues they seem bored to me---lacking challenge---lacking charismatic, "make things happen" personalities. Super secure people often resort to petty bickering for a sense of aliveness.

That sign says "TRAVEL'N PALS. Its drama is that it originated in protest to the LOW's ironclad policy of no couple-ism. So those wishing to enjoy couple-hood migrated just across the street and began a new tribe.

Occupying the "individuals" half of the slabs are about 50 characters like Container Charley--whom you've met before. They find groups oppressive--so they define a territory--take possession and do their thing. Charley is building a museum. Other individuals sell things (solar mike---solar panels)----start a church---read and write---build something--or stay drunk.

One of Charlie's displays.

Another of Charlie's exhibits--not the lady--that's my Ex--the bus--quarter buried---has an interesting story---not unlike--Ken Kesey's merry pranksters trip---the traveling group at odyssey's end---wanted a dramatic resting place for it---- So they quarter-buried it here.

Side view of the Stage Door--A makeshift, homemade Nightclub created by a Slabber. I've been here when 50 or more denizens and visitors were entertained by would-be country stars. The cast off couches and chairs were sometimes coopted by local dogs. Great Drama!

Front view. Keep in mind that the two stages--nightclubs--this and the RANGE are not profit driven enterprises--but a wish to create DRAMA----"Happening".

Here is the drama of lost love---about 50 animals are buried here---most with tender messages posted. One bears a professional tombstone.

Profit motive here---the seller designed and sells these t-shirts for $15. The shirt says: THE LAST FREE PLACE-- SLABS--- SURVIVOR.



RANDY PHILOSOPHIZES: The overall drama of the slabs is to camp and live without paying rent while enjoying the proximity of others---- To beat the capitalistic system---to occupy and claim land without paying for it. A sub-drama is to preserve privacy and individualism while still enjoying connection with others. Those who choose to cluster "enjoy" the additional drama of "making it" with a group. Those who choose to lead their group "enjoy" the drama of leadership.

Ultimately, everyone's DRAMA is to keep NOTHINGNESS at bay---to push it away--in any of a thousand ways.

THE SLABS---AN AMERICAN PHENOMENON---PART 3 DENIZENS

MOST SLAB DENIZENS ARE SEASONAL VISITORS----only about a hundred live there year round---will show you some of each. Some of my "tribe" enjoying a frisbee tournament --40 of us--here for a week---our rigs are parked in the background.

Each day we walked a portion of the slabs where I arranged interviews with resident personalities. I'm leaning against the slabs bulletin board. Slabbers also have a "radio station"---channel 23 on the CB where Linda---the Slab "Mayor" communicates all the news worth reporting.

Here's Jo Ann---my Co-host---a very creative lady who thought up several of our tribal experiments---which I will detail later in the Drama post.

Meet Container Charley---Surely the Slabs' most creative and enthusiastic resident---here lecturing our group on his latest acquisitions: the whirlagig behind him (used as a prop in a recent Bruce Willis movie)---and the geodesic dome pictured left.

A close up of Charley in his power room. Each of those rectangles is a 700 pound battery and he has 32 of them---charged by an awesome array of photovoltaic panels. He doesn't particularly need the power---just enjoys having it. His grandfather invented those individualized packets of salt and pepper you see everywhere.

Solar Mike and wife----as they emerged from a sound sleep to behold one of our experiments---our SPOOKY WALK SING SING--- More about that in my Drama post. Mike runs a thriving business installing solar panels on RV's. Imagine running a business with no rental overhead.

A New preacher in town---no license or degree required--just put out your cross and people will come. I took a pict of an AA meeting in progress but chose not to show it. They meet behind this trailer.

This guy was just passing through and was allowed to pitch his tent here out of the wind by the friendly oasis people.

This guy lives in a tent under that tree---had a strong desire to build a certain item---needed a goat skin---bought a goat for $60---hired a fellow camper to slaughter and skin it. The killer's price was the meat-----Will show you the completed item in my next post.

The meat is hanging to dry all over this tree--- becoming jerky--Can you see it? The horses are his also.

Nearby is this German nudist living in his truck. (took this pict surreptitiously)

Saturday night entertainers at the "ranch"--- an informal stage --lights and sound equipment powered by batteries---charged during the day by solar panels. The movie "INTO THE WILD" features this strange stage----with "Insane Wayne" singing his signature Slabs song.

A cluster of mavericks roused from their campfire when our SPOOKY WALK SING SING boldly marched into their camp--they were astonished and delighted that ANYONE would come calling on them. More on this is my next post.

Surely the Slabs most eccentric and fearsome character---meet MOTH! I sneaked this photo to show his intimidating dimentions, dreadlocked hair and bizarre dress----yes, he wears a dress and god help you if you ask about it. He bloodied one guy this night---- lives in the large septic tank I pictured in the domicile post. So far I've not had the courage to approach for an interview. FLASH: Thanks to THE BAYFIELD BUNCH we now can have a look inside that mysterious tank that MOTH lives inside along with lots of other picts they made at the Slabs 3 years ago---since that time you will notice from my pict of his tank that he built a steel door with lock to stop future visitors. http://picasaweb.google.com/stargeezerguy/36DEC20LASTDAYATTHESLABS#

RANDY COMMENTS: Next up, I will focus on my favorite aspect of Slab life ---The Dramas in play.

THE SLABS---AN AMERICAN PHENOMENON PART 2: DOMICILES

A PLACE TO BE. We all must BE someplace. Come with me to the world's most surprising campground---A place where you may camp rent-free ---even build a house--in a super free--almost anarchic-- community. The state of California inherited the land and has chosen to permit unlimited free living. It is a sanctuary for distressed or impoverished or just curious individuals. In succeedings entries I will focus on its Denizens and on its Drama. Now, I acquaint you with its Domiciles. To see the precise location of the Slabs note the tiny town of Niland California at the lower east edge of the Salton Sea. Now note the road going east and see where it intersects with the Coachilla Canal---bingo--the infamous SLABS.

Settled myself in on the edge of our "tribal" grounds about dark and noticed this scene in my front window.

Of course I stepped outside to catch the full glory of the moment. My 5 pronged experiment begins tomorrow.

But this first morning, I will amble around to show you the variety of Slab domiciles. This neatly engineered shed with camouflage material for shade adjoins his motorhome.

Territoriality expressing itself here. A year round resident is building a pool. (Odd because there's no running water at the Slabs---nearest faucet is in Niland---4 miles away.)

A classic Teardrop trailer---from the 1920's---minimalism for sure. But note the solar panel for electrical power.

A somewhat isolated 6ft x 12ft home built literally on the sand and shaded against the summer sun.

Can you see this camouflaged tent. Also located on the Slab's periphery and occupied by Leonard's defender--the escapist social worker mentioned in part 1.

Lots of old trailers like these in what I call the spooky zone--thickly vegetated.

A traveling guy and gal set up temporary housekeeping amidst the trash--seemingly untroubled by their unsightly surroundings.

Guy and his wife fenced themselves and their dogs in---with chain link no less. Said he's here for the long haul.

Lots of tents around---reasonably comfortably living if one has water. Many Slabbers do like this guy--buy a 50 gallon tank and pay a small fee for water delivery. Using an average of 2 gallons per day, that is a 25 day supply.

A residence and a business---"Solar Mike" and his wife live here---I judge them to be the Slabs most substantial citizens. He sells and installs solar panels and windmills.

The Slabs most colorful citizen---container charley. (more about him later) showing off his summer nights sleeping loft. The Container behind him is an insulated one shipped in from San Francisco and used as his primary residence. He has claimed a large swath of land and is constructing a museum/estate.

Xanadon't is the name of this quirky structure. Do you get the literary reference?

Inside Xanadon"t --- My friends inspecting.

Perhaps the strangest of all the homes---and occupied by the strangest of Slab Citizens---Will show him to you in the next entry.

This was a sewer holding tank for the military base---made of reinforced concrete. Its current occupant---a character called Moth---apparantly "claimed" it , chiseled a doorway and moved in, decorating his windoless home with odd paintings.

THE SLABS--AN AMERICAN PHENOMENON--PART 1 DRIVING IN

THIS IS A LARGE STORY THAT MUST BE TOLD IN BITS. A story of accident, chaos, meaning, freedom and order. I come here to conduct a series of experiments as my "tribe" joins me for a week long visit. Here's the edge of the thing---a most incredible square mile---the remains of a military base closed down in 1946---squatted upon by RVers seeking free--warm--winter camping---evolving into a loose knit society of mavericks and outlanders.
But first---I show you the infamous "HOLE" ---that's it's name--located just a few steps to the right of the guardhouse pictured above. An entire community bathes here. Warm water from a nearby spring pours into this hole and is shunted under a canal to dissipate into a field.
The entrance is a bit soggy at times--but no mind---strip yourself--and carefully hang your clothes on the bushes.
Then climb down this ladder for one of the most delightful showers of your lifetime. Thousands have bathed here---an experience to brag about---Have you been in the hole? Be ashamed to say no if you've visited the slabs.
The water comes from the outflow of this warm spring a half mile away.
Salvation Mountain---made world famous in Sean Penn's movie INTO THE WILD . Google it for the full story.
Leonard Knight--its builder---now very old and feeble ---He's famous---and apparantly on fire with purpose. I wonder whether he's squandered his life.
The guy out front addressing my tour group is a refugee social worker from New York who lives near Leonard and has assigned himself the duty to protect the old man from predators. (He was robbed) Tomorrow I plan to show you scenes from the slabs heartland that struck me. and the next day report on my experiments and finally philosophize a bit.

Fearless Predictions for 2011

"A man who goes around with a prophecy-gun ought never to get discouraged: if he will keep up his heart and fire at everything he sees, he is bound to hit something by and by."  --Mark Twain

It's that time of the year when journalists, analysts, and bloggers fire their prophecy guns, predicting what will happen in the next 12 months.  Most year-end predictions fall into four categories of uselessness: Fish in the Barrel, Shots in the Dark, Wish-Fulfillment, and Self-Service. 

Fish in the Barrel are predictions so obvious that they're almost sure to come true.  You make this sort of prediction if you're afraid someone will come back in 12 months and point out how many things you missed.  Any good prediction list should include about 60% fish, to ensure a nice overall score.  For example, the San Jose Mercury News recently predicted that M&A activity will increase in cloud computing in 2011 (link).  Gosh, really?

In this spirit, I'd like to predict that water will flow downhill throughout the year.  Please keep track of that; I know I will.

Shots in the Dark are things that no one can really predict, but that involve prominent names, so they sound insightful and interesting.  You need about 20% of this sort of prediction on your list -- not enough to ruin your average, but enough so you'll sound bold.  Besides, if you get lucky and hit on one of these, you can claim credit for the rest of your career.  The Merc predicted that Google will buy Twitter this year.  Nice.

My shot in the dark is the Newt Gingrich will marry Lindsay Lohan in 2011.  I know it's a stretch, but if I'm wrong I can pass it off as a joke, and if I'm right I'll be famous forever.

Wish fulfillment.  This is the other 20% of a good prediction list: You should predict one or two things that everyone agrees ought to happen, even if it they aren't likely to actually come true.  You don't get blamed if these are wrong, because the failure of the prediction shows that there's something wrong with reality, not wrong with you.  The Merc's prediction that Carol Bartz will be fired from Yahoo in 2011 fits in this category.

My wish fulfillment prediction for 2011 is that mobile web apps will take over from native mobile apps.  I've been predicting that for years (link); if I keep doing it long enough I'll eventually be right.  But in reality I think it won't happen in 2011, because APIs and browser infrastructure for disconnected web apps aren't fully mature yet.  Maybe 2012...

Self-Service.  These predictions are a whole separate activity.  Many industry publications fill valuable column-inches, and reward advertisers, by asking industry CEOs to predict the next year.  Most of the CEOs have no idea what to say, so they pass off the task to their PR departments, who naturally predict that the most important event of the next year will be the total dominance of their employer.  That's how Wireless Week came up with the following stunning forecasts (link):

--A mobile operator predicts that this will be the year of 4G
--A mobile transactions company predicts that it'll be the year of mobile payments
--A networking equipment company predicts that it'll be the year of WiFi

And on and on.  Along these lines, I'd like to predict that 2011 is the year that my startup, Cera Technology, will take over the galaxy.

(By the way, it really will.)


The trouble with all of these sorts of predictions is that you can't do much with them.  They're fun to read (and that's probably their main point), but if you take action based on them you'll put your business at risk.  Even the fish in a barrel are riskier than they look, because they're built on straight-line predictions of current events, and the past is a poor predictor of the future.  For example, here's ReadWriteWeb in 2007 on a thing called SecondLife (link):

SecondLife will become an important platform for marketing, promotion, and of course social networking - as people and businesses figure out different uses for it. Also we think SecondLife will continue its expansion worldwide. Currently you can find Habbo and SecondLife cards in most supermarkets (Wallgreens, CVS) in the US, so this trend should continue in other parts of the world. In short, virtual worlds will become an integral part of the real world in 2007.

Ooookay.

I am not trying to pick on ReadWriteWeb; it's an excellent site, and there were huge numbers of predictions like this at the time.  But you get my point.

Since it's impossible to accurately predict the future, the forecast I'd like to see isn't a list of what will happen, but a list of what could happen.  And I'm not looking for small things, but the big surprise changes that make or break companies and industries.  Specifically, what assumptions are we making that could turn out to be wrong?  How would that change the balance of power in the market?  And what should we do about it?

Here are my four forecasts of possible game-changers in 2011:


1.  The Mobile Data Market Stops Growing

That's a prediction you won't see in many places, but think about it for a minute.  Every market eventually saturates. The question isn't whether mobile data will saturate, but when.

Right now everyone's assuming the saturation point is far away, because smartphones are owned by only at most a third of phone users in the US and Europe (link).  The other two thirds are still available!  I have no doubt that most of those people will eventually get smartphones as their prices drop.  Horace Dediu has made this case very persuasively (link).

What I'm not sure of, though, is that those people getting cheap smartphones will pay for data plans.

When I was at Palm, we studied the market for mobile devices very intensely.  At the time, about a third of mobile phone users were willing to pay extra for any sort of advanced feature.  The other two thirds weren't willing to pay anything extra.  Many of them were too poor, some of them were too cheap, and some of them just didn't see any value in it.

If you gave them free hardware, like a cameraphone, they'd take it of course.  But when it came time to pay for camera-related services, they took one look at the first month's bill and then stopped sending photos to each other.  That's why multimedia messaging was a business failure.

Things have changed since I left Palm.  Smartphones are a lot more capable than they were four years ago, the networks are better, and Apple has spent years advertising the benefits of an iPhone.  I'm sure that has increased the number of people willing to pay extra for mobile data.  But by how much?

No one I know of has studied this directly, but I did recently see some consumer research from one of the major analysis firms.  It suggested that the percent of people willing to pay extra has risen to about 40%.  If that's true, then rather than being a third penetrated, the mobile data market may be about 75% penetrated.  Given the rapid growth of smartphone sales, we could hit the demand wall as soon as late 2011.

I'd be delighted to be wrong in this forecast.  Maybe the willing customers are growing much faster than the studies indicate.  Maybe the new devices coming this year will suck in a bunch more people.  I hope so.  But if you think 100% of the population is going to willingly add $200 or more a year to their phone bills just to browse the web from a bus, you're living in fantasyland.  And the end may be a lot closer than you think.

What it means.  The major mobile companies should be conducting careful consumer research on the willingness of people to pay for data plans.  Match that up with the growth rate of smartphones, and see where the lines cross.  Then invest (or hide) appropriately.


2.  Facebook Becomes Passé

No, Facebook won't die in 2011; I'm sure it will continue to grow throughout the year.  But right now Facebook is seen as the hottest player in the Internet, the leading disruptor that forces everyone else to react to it (link, link).

By contrast Google, the previous lead disruptor, is looking more and more like a typical big company trying to hit its growth targets.  The most striking evidence for this has been Google's public switch from internally-generated innovation to acquisitions.  At the peak of Google's rise, analysts fawned over its plan to innovate internally by hiring bright people and turning them loose on problems.  An article in Fortune Magazine in 2006, Chaos by Design, said Google had figured out how to create an internal atmosphere of "structured chaos" in which new ideas would bubble to the top automatically (link).  Four years later, Google's VP of corporate development says acquired companies can move faster than Google itself can (link).

"The stunning success of acquisitions that led to products like Google Maps, Android and YouTube has also opened Google to criticism that the company has become Silicon Valley's answer to the New York Yankees, using its wad of cash to buy talent rather than developing it from within." --San Jose Mercury News

It's not a shocking change.  Tech Overlords don't last forever, and in fact it seems like their reigns have become shorter over time.  IBM was the dominant player for about 25 years, Microsoft for maybe 15, and Google has held that role for less than ten.

If Facebook is the new leader in disruption, what could knock it off the throne?  I think its own success may carry the seeds.  As Facebook has become more and more popular, the young people who first fueled its success have started to look elsewhere for their social connections.  I've been watching the online habits of my teenage daughter and her friends.  They use Facebook, of course, but it's just one in a constellation of social tools they use, and it's not at the center.

The hot property among the people I watch appears to be Tumblr, which is a combination of social network and blogging platform.  Unlike Facebook, which focuses on your connections, Tumblr focuses on shared self-expression.  It's a new social medium, the easiest place online to say "I love these shoes" or "here's how I feel" or "listen to this song that my friend just posted."  For users who want to communicate feelings more than ideas, Tumblr is a unique vehicle.  No wonder it's popular among teens, who by definition are sorting out their feelings.

The other thing that makes Tumblr different is that it's not overrun by 40-year-olds reconnecting with their high school classmates.

This is a very typical Tumblr page (link).

Here's a Tumblr user on the difference between Tumblr and Facebook, expressed through video clips, which is very typical of the way Tumblr users communicate: link.

I'm not saying that Tumblr is the next Facebook.  Right now Facebook has about 30 times more traffic in the US; comparing them is like comparing a ladybug to a wolverine.  For all I know, in another six months the kids may have moved on to something else.  But the lesson of Tumblr is that Facebook encodes one particular type of social interaction, the friends-list-with-status-updates.  The real world of social interaction is far, far richer than that, and we don't know how it will translate online.  Chances are that at some point Facebook's powerful paradigm will turn into a straitjacket.

Will that happen in 2011?  I have no clue.  But I bet it'll take a lot less than a decade.

What it means.  Rather than trying to compete with Facebook head on, I'd be looking at other paradigms for social interaction online.  What social needs do people have?  Approval?  Validation?  Stimulation?  How can you deliver those things online, more effectively than people can get them in person?


3.  Book Publishing Dies
  
Someday, ebooks will enable established authors to sell their writing directly to the public, bypassing the publishers and bookstores and taking 70-80% of the revenue for themselves, rather than giving 85% of it to middlemen.  I have no doubt whatsoever that this will happen.  The trick is figuring out when.  People have been predicting it for more than a decade, but so far the publishers are still in charge.

As you know if you've been reading this blog for a while, I've tried to do some economic analysis on when we'll reach the tipping point where publishers become redundant (link).  I won't repeat the whole analysis here, but the summary is that when about 20% of the book-buying public has ebook readers or tablets, it'll make economic sense for an established author to drop print entirely and go straight to electronic distribution (because they can make so much more per copy sold electronically).  We're likely to see slow progress for ebooks until that point, and then an accelerating stampede after.

We're not close to the 20% tablet penetration figure yet, and we won't hit it in 2011.  But 20% is just an average across all authors; some may find that the market has shifted for them earlier than others.

So I was fascinated when I ran across this LA Times article on authors who have already decided to start ditching their publishers (link).  These aren't vanity writers going electronic because they can't get into print; they're established authors who are pulling their backlist books out of print because they can make more money selling them electronically.  One of the authors, Joe Konrath, detailed the economics of his decision here.

Check out the Times article and Konrath's scenario on the potential death spiral for bookstores (link).  The rumbling sound you'll hear is the Four Horsemen riding after the book publishing industry.  Will they arrive in 2011?  Not for all publishers, and not all at once.  My guess is that we'll continue to hear more hype than action in 2011, with the big switch starting in 2012 or 2013.  But the situation is fragile, and today's migration could turn into a stampede sooner than I expect.

What it means.  As I've said before, publishers need to find a way to deliver real value to authors and readers in an electronic world.  Maybe it's editing services, maybe it's marketing, maybe it's something I can't think of.  But it's different from what most of them do today.  And no, helping an author navigate the variety of ebook stores is not the answer.  An agent can do that.


4.  The Year of the Tablet Backlash

I'm sure Apple is going to sell a lot of iPads, Amazon (and maybe B&N) will sell a lot of e-readers, and hopefully the HP/Palm tablet will be interesting.  But I think it's very likely that most of the other tablets entering the market this year will exit just as quickly.  Why?  Because there's no particular user problem they're solving.

I've seen these consumer electronics bubbles before.  One company has a successful product, somebody else copies it ineptly, and everyone else piles on because they don't want to be left behind.  Never mind that they don't know why they're building the products, or for whom.  The result is inevitably a big overshoot, inventory writeoffs, damaged careers, and a press backlash as the manufacturers run away from the market and customers feel burned.

This is another case where I'd be very happy to be wrong, but the situation smells very much like the other product bubbles I've lived through.  If the tablet market does take off, it'll probably be because the manufacturers were rescued by an unexpected killer app.  If things end badly, give some blame to Google for feeding the overshoot by pushing Android as a tablet OS even though they have no clear idea what the market is for it.  Credibility is a precious resource, hard to accumulate and easy to squander.  When you have a powerful brand, you can convince people to follow you up the hill on a crusade once, or maybe twice.  But after you've burned them enough, they won't follow you readily again.  Just ask Microsoft.

What it means.  If you're making a tablet app, don't depend exclusively on Android.  And if you're creating tablet hardware, the product you should be building is an info pad (link).


There you are, my four forecasts of big game-changers that could happen in 2011.  What do you think?  You're welcome to disagree with these, but I'm most interested in your predictions of other big, surprising changes that could happen in the next 12 months.